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Die «Erdoberflächentemperatur» ist die gemessene Lufttemperatur an der Erdoberfläche
In diesem Unterkapitel kennzeichnen die in eckigen Klammern [ ] befindlichen Zahlen den Bereich, in dem der angegebene Parameter sehr wahrscheinlich («very likely») liegt (mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von >90 %).
Der Zeitraum 1850–1900 wird global mit «vorindustriell» gleichgesetzt, da er nach gegenwärtigem Wissensstand ähnlich warm war wie der Zeitraum 1750–1850 (die Zeit vor der «Industriellen Revolution»), aber eine viel bessere Datenbasis aufweist. Für die Schweiz wird dafür der Zeitraum 1871–1900 verwendet, da es erst ab etwa 1864 regelmässige Messungen gab. MeteoSchweiz benutzt eine flexible Klimatrendlinie gemäss Scherrer et al. (2024)2 zur Bestimmung der bereits erfolgten Erwärmung. Diese beträgt 2024 +2,9 °C gegenüber dem Mittel 1871–1900. Für einen Vergleich Global-Europa-Schweiz siehe Abbildung 2.
Dieser Wert basiert auf den ERA5-Daten und ergibt sich aus der Differenz zwischen den Mittelwerten der Perioden 2015–2024 und 1980–1990.7
Zur Berechnung der Temperaturmittelwerte verwendet die Schweiz das gleitende Temperaturmittel, welches mit lokaler linearer Regression (LOESS) bestimmt wird. Während aus Gründen der Vergleichbarkeit in Abbildung 2 die Zehnjahresdurchschnitte auch für die Schweiz angegeben werden (2,8 °C), liegt die für die Schweiz mit dem gleitenden Klimamittel berechnete Erwärmung 2024 bei 2,9 °C. Diese Methode ersetzt zunehmend traditionelle lineare Trendschätzungen und gleitende Mittelwerte, da sie nichtlineare Verläufe des Klimatrends gut abbilden kann.
Das Schneehuhn gilt als typisches Beispiel, da es stark an kalte, hochalpine Lebensräume gebunden ist, nur geringe Ausbreitungsmöglichkeiten hat und durch das Vorrücken konkurrenzstarker Arten aus tieferen Lagen zusätzlich unter Druck gerät.
Auch wenn es aktuell noch zu keinen Ansteckungen durch die Tigermücke kommt, steigt mit ihrer zunehmenden Verbreitung das Risiko, dass sich Krankheiten, die von der Tigermücke übertragen werden, wie Zika, Dengue, Chikungunya oder Malaria, innerhalb der Schweiz ausbreiten könnten.
Die für die Berechnung angewendete Methode folgt dem IPCC-Risikomodell: Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability. Sie kombiniert hochauflösende Hitzeprognosen (Hazard), wer wie stark bei Hitze arbeitet (Exposure), und wie sehr die Leistung bei Hitze sinkt (Vulnerability).
Die Verringerung der Emissionen des zweitwichtigsten Treibhausgases, Methan, ist besonders wichtig. Methan wird – anders als CO2 – in der Atmosphäre relativ rasch abgebaut, ist aber aufgrund der starken Erwärmungswirkung und der hohen Emissionen für etwa einen Drittel der menschverursachten Erwärmung verantwortlich. Eine rasche, massgebliche Senkung der Methanemissionen führt zu einer Senkung der atmosphärischen Konzentration und der Erwärmungswirkung. Dadurch erhöht sich das verbleibende CO2-Budget. Die Reduktion der weiteren Nicht-CO2-Treibhausgase ist ebenfalls wichtig für die Erreichung der Klimaziele, steht aber aufgrund der im Vergleich zu CO2 und Methan deutlich geringeren Gesamtwirkung weniger im Vordergrund.
Die in Kapitel 1.1.1 genannte von Menschen verursachte globale Erwärmung von 1,24 °C [1,11–1,35 °C] bezieht sich auf den Durchschnittswert 2015–2024. Die hier erwähnte Schätzung von 1,36 °C gilt für das Jahr 2024 und entspricht der (extrapolierten) geglätteten beobachteten Temperaturentwicklung.
Bei netto-negativen CO2-Emissionen wird der Atmosphäre durch menschliche Aktivitäten in der Bilanz mehr CO2 entzogen, als CO2 in die Atmosphäre emittiert wird. Dafür werden chemische oder biologische Methoden zur Entnahme von CO2 (Carbon Dioxide Removal, CDR) verwendet. Dabei existieren noch zahlreiche offene Fragen bezüglich der technischen Möglichkeiten, den realistischen Potenzialen und den Kosten.
Die Emissionsreduktionsziele unter dem Übereinkommen von Paris werden Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) genannt. Sie bezeichnen die von einzelnen Vertragsstaaten festgelegten, quantitativen und qualitativen Beiträge zur Minderung von Treibhausgasemissionen sowie zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Sie sind zentraler Bestandteil des Bottom-up-Ansatzes des Übereinkommens und reflektieren die jeweilige nationale Verantwortung, Kapazität und Ambition, wobei sie im Fünfjahresrhythmus aktualisiert und idealerweise ambitionierter ausgestaltet werden.
Erwärmung zusammengesetzt aus der Erwärmung von 1,9 °C (Mittel von 1991–2020) und der erwarteten Erwärmung im Sommer nach dieser Periode im Mittelland (+3,2 °C) und in den Alpen (+4,1 °C).
Abschätzungen erfolgen zum einen mit Gleichgewichtsmodellen, welche die Wirtschaft simulieren und die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels als Störung der unterschiedlichen Produktionssektoren betrachten, und zum anderen durch empirische Ansätze, die analysieren, wie sich Wetterextreme in der Vergangenheit auf das Wirtschaftswachstum ausgewirkt haben und diese Auswirkungen für unterschiedliche zukünftige Klimaszenarien extrapolieren.
Die EU-Kommission hat für das Zwischenziel 2040 die Ermöglichung der Anrechnung von CO2-Reduktionen im Ausland vorgesehen, doch beträgt der mögliche Anteil an der Gesamtreduktion lediglich 3 % und nicht 33 % wie in der Schweiz.
Betroffene Waren: Aluminium, Zement, Elektrizität, Düngemittel, Wasserstoff, Eisen und Stahl
Policy Design: Gestaltung wirksamer politischer Instrumente und Massnahmen zur Erreichung politischer Ziele; Packaging: Kombinierte Abstimmung und Bündelung verschiedener Massnahmen zu einem kohärenten Gesamtansatz.
Die Emissionsangaben im Gesundheitssektor in diesem Kapitel beruhen auf Scope 1–3 Emissionen (siehe auch Infobox 1).
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